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U.S. Exceptionalism: Is It Still Intact? | Weekly Market Commentary | February 3, 2025

With China’s DeepSeek pressuring investors to take a closer look at the current environment of artificial intelligence (AI) development within the U.S., some are taking a moment to question the accuracy of a much larger idea — American Exceptionalism.

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Weekly Market Commentary

A Basket of Uncertainty Bolsters the Dollar | Weekly Market Commentary | November 25, 2024

The dollar’s continued climb higher has been predicated on a host of factors — including the rise in geopolitical risk and the dollar’s safe haven status as inflows have picked up markedly, uncertainty with regard to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate move in December, a solid domestic economic landscape with inflation still “sticky,” a weakening euro as expectations suggest the potential for a stronger rate cut, and questions regarding the inflationary implications of the Trump administration’s tariff agenda. With more questions than answers, the dollar’s ascent is expected to continue — or level off — until there’s more definitive information regarding the extent of tariffs, and on the other side of the equation, the effect of retaliatory tariffs. Global capital markets seek clarity, particularly the currency market.

Trade, Tariffs, and Inflation | Weekly Market Commentary | November 18, 2024

Trade dynamics have shifted considerably since President Trump’s first administration. Reshoring among U.S. businesses and headwinds to the Chinese economy may limit the inflationary impact from rogue trade policy.

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Research

Client Letter | The Best and Worst of Times | September 7, 2022

When it comes to stock market performance, August was “the best of times, and the worst of times.

Global Portfolio Strategy | August 3, 2022

The STAAC Committee maintains its overweight equities recommendation relative to bonds for August based on the belief that near-term recession fears may be overdone.

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Market Watch

Recent Posts

Keys to Stock Market Gains in 2025 | Weekly Market Commentary | December 30, 2024

As 2024 draws to a close, investors have fully embraced the stock market. The S&P 500 is up more than 25% year to date. The broader Russell 3000 Index is up 24%. The Nasdaq Composite is up over 31%. Even the laggards are up double-digits with 12% and 14% advances for the small cap Russell 2000 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Volatility was low, with a maximum peak-to-trough decline for the S&P 500 of 8.5% (the long-term average max drawdown is over 13%). As we turn our attention to 2025, the supports of the past year largely remain in place, but some additional pillars have been added as we discuss below.